Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 4 (2025)

September 24, 2024

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!

2024 Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 3:

• While Carson Steele was slightly inefficient, he finished the week as a top 15 running back in Expected Points (15.1), commanding 27.5% of the Chiefs’ opportunities. He also led the backfield in route participation at 55%. Keep an eye on his usage as the Chiefs did sign Kareem Hunt, who could take away some of Steele’s opportunities in the coming weeks.
• Braelon Allen finished within the top 36 in Expected Fantasy Points for the second week in a row, indicating that the Jets continue to give him RB3 usage. While his upside will be limited with the presence of Breece Hall, Allen should remain a flex option in most matchups.
• Bucky Irving’s dynasty value is rising as he continues to carve out a more significant role in the Buccaneers offense. More importantly, he continues to be the more efficient running back for Tampa Bay. In Week 3, Rachaad White led the team in usage value (10.6 xFP), but Irving finished the game with a higher Rushing EPA (Expected Points Added) with +3.3. In other words, he was the more impactful rusher for the Bucs. Based on Todd Bowles’ recent comments, I expect Irving’s usage to only increase going forward.
• Rome Odunze set a career-high in every opportunity metric, finishing the week with a 23% target share, 49% air yards share, and 20.9 Expected Points. In other words, with Keenan Allen out of the lineup, Odunze operated as the WR1 ahead of D.J. Moore. While we need to see him maintain these numbers before we can confidently plug him into our lineups, it was still encouraging to see Odunze command elite volume for the first time this year.
• For the second week in a row, Marvin Harrison Jr. finished as a WR1 in usage, ranking as the WR4 in Expected Fantasy Points. As he continues to build rapport with Kyler Murray, Harrison Jr. will remain a borderline WR1 every week as he leads Arizona’s receivers in both target share (26%) and air yards share (44%) through three games.
• Troy Franklin has had a quiet start to his career. From struggling in training camp to being a healthy scratch in Week 1, his dynasty stock has been steadily declining over the last couple of months. However, this past week, Franklin set career highs in route participation (30%), targets per route run (42%), and opportunities per snap (29%). While he remains unstartable in every league format, it was encouraging to see him receive more opportunities and command targets at such a high rate.
• This was by far the most productive week for Caleb Williams. After a rough start to his rookie year, he set career highs in average depth of target (10.5), Completion Percentage Over Expected (+2.7), and Success Rate (46.7%). That translated into an impressive 27.8 Expected Point Value and a borderline QB1 performance with 19.3 fantasy points.
• Bo Nix had a similarly productive performance as he led the Broncos to their first win this season. He finished the week as the QB7 in Success Rate (60.4%), QB16 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+4.9), and QB13 in EPA per Play (+0.217). While the matchup certainly helped, we want rookie quarterbacks to show progress, which is exactly what we saw from Nix this past week.

Dynasty Stock Report

Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs, WR

Stock Up

The WR1 for the Kansas City Chiefs has been very clearly Rashee Rice this season, who is currently the WR5 in half-PPR leagues. While he has relied heavily on efficiency and explosive plays to produce (+5.9 Fantasy Points Over Expected), the usage has been just as impressive. For context, Rice is currently averaging a 34% target share, 35% air yards share, and 33% targets per route run, leading the Chiefs’ receivers in nearly every opportunity metric. With such a productive start to his second season, Rice’s dynasty value has increased dramatically over the last couple of weeks, rising as high as WR10 on Keep Trade Cut. Keep in mind that Rice could still be suspended in the coming months as his off-field incident from this offseason has yet to be resolved. However, assuming the suspension is limited to a few games, I do not expect his dynasty value to be significantly impacted. For now, consider Rice a dynasty WR1 as he continues to be the lead receiver for one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers, QB

Stock Down

One of the most shocking developments in Week 3 was the benching of Bryce Young. While he has struggled to start the year, it was still surprising to see the Panthers give up on him so quickly, especially after drafting him with the first overall pick just a season ago. Regardless, it does not change the fact that Young has been one of the most inaccurate and inefficient quarterbacks so far this season. Among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 plays, Young ranks as the:

• QB32 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-11%)
• QB32 in Success Rate (29.2%)
• QB32 in EPA per Play (-0.514)

In short, he was near the bottom in almost every efficiency metric. By contrast, Andy Dalton was significantly more efficient this past week in replacement of Young. Against the Raiders, a defense that was top 15 in EPA per Dropback through the first two weeks, Dalton was the QB9 in EPA per Play (+0.32) and QB19 in Success Rate (47.6%). On a positive note, Dalton likely improves the immediate fantasy outlook for the Panthers’ players. On the other hand, Young’s dynasty value will continue to decline until he finds his next opportunity, whether that be with the Panthers or with a new team.

Malik Nabers – New York Giants, WR

Stock Up

Malik Nabers entered the league as one of the most accomplished college wide receivers, producing an 80th-percentile season as a sophomore at LSU and then following that up with an elite 98th-percentile campaign in his final year. Coupled with first-round capital, Nabers checked every box as a wide receiver prospect. As a result, he was graded as one of the most elite wide receivers in my rookie model, ranking in the 96th percentile next to players like Odell Beckham Jr, Garrett Wilson, and Justin Jefferson. In other words, while his landing spot was far from ideal, it was only a matter of time until he broke out in the NFL. Fortunately for dynasty managers, we only had to wait a couple of weeks as Nabers has been dominant to start the season. In three games, he is the:

• WR1 in Expected Fantasy Points (18.7)
• WR3 in Targets per Snap (21.4%)
• WR1 in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.97)
• WR2 in Half-PPR points per game (19.0)

In short, we are seeing elite production from an elite prospect. As a result, Nabers should already be considered a top 10 dynasty wide receiver. And if he continues to produce at such a high rate, I would not be shocked to see him crack the top five in dynasty value by the end of the year.

Luke Musgrave – Green Bay Packers, TE

Stock Down

While he was drafted with second-round draft capital by the Green Bay Packers in 2023, Luke Musgrave’s role has steadily declined over the past year. In his rookie season, he did start the season as the TE1 for Jordan Love, averaging a 70% route participation in their first 10 games. Unfortunately, he suffered a lacerated kidney in Week 11, forcing him to miss a majority of the second half of his rookie year. In his absence, Tucker Kraft quickly emerged as the TE1 and never looked back, leading the Packers’ tight ends this season in route participation (69%) and target share (12.5%). While I would still avoid starting either tight end for fantasy purposes, I would much rather roster the player who is running more routes and commanding more targets in Matt LaFleur’s offense. Therefore, expect Musgrave’s dynasty value to decline as he continues to operate behind Kraft in the Packers’ offense.

Prospect Watch List

One of the biggest risers among the 2025 rookie class has been Kaleb Johnson out of Iowa. After splitting touches with Leshon Williams in his first two seasons, Johnson emerged this year as one of the most productive running backs in the nation. At 6’0” and 225 pounds, Johnson has showcased impressive vision, elusiveness, and toughness as a rusher, leading the FBS in yards from scrimmage (711) and total touchdowns (9) through Week 4. As you can see above, he is also averaging an elite 2.62 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play, which would place his season in the 99th percentile among all junior campaigns since 2013. In addition, the only running back averaging a more efficient season is Ashton Jeanty, who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2025 draft.

Surprisingly, Johnson’s production profile is very similar to Jonathon Brooks, who did very little early in his career but dominated when given the opportunity as a junior. With that in mind, Johnson’s dynasty stock continues to improve as he is likely putting himself in the conversation as a day-two selection. Assuming he continues to dominate in both usage and efficiency, it is only a matter of time until mock drafts have him projected as a top-90 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top running backs through four weeks of the CFB season:

Andy DaltonBo NixBraelon AllenBreece HallBryce YoungCaleb WilliamsCarolina PanthersCarson SteeleD.J. MooreGarrett WilsonGreen Bay PackersJonathon BrooksJordan LoveJustin JeffersonKansas City ChiefsKareem HuntKeenan AllenKyler MurrayLuke MusgraveMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.New York GiantsOdell Beckham Jr.Rachaad WhiteRashee RiceRome OdunzeTroy FranklinTucker Kraft DynastyDynasty Fantasy FootballDynasty ReportWeek 4