NBA playoff picture, standings, magic numbers, matchups: Jazz, Pelicans, Spurs, OKC one win from clinching in West (2025)

Entering Sunday in the Western Conference playoff race, there are six teams bidding for five spots -- and all six of them control their own destiny, meaning if they win out, they're in. Further, all six of those teams play either the team directly above or below them on the final day of the season. This. Is. Nuts.

Here is your Western Conference playoffs picture entering Sunday, April 8.

NOTES: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

Already clinched

The Rockets are locked into the No. 1 seed with home-court advantage clinched through the Finals should they make it there. Now, they just wait to see who they'll face in the first round with the West's No. 8 seed still completely up in the air. If seeds hold, Houston would get Minnesota in the opening round.

The Warriors are locked into the No. 2 seed, and like Houston, they are merely waiting to see who they will play in the first round. If seeds hold, Golden State will see No. 7 OKC in the first round, and what a matchup that would be with Stephen Curry likely not able to play.

The Blazers have clinched a playoff spot and are close to locking the No. 3 seed, but it's not a done deal. They lost Saturday to the Spurs, and are now just one game up in the loss column on the No. 4 Jazz, who they play on the final night of the season. First, they have to get past Denver, which has won five straight as it chases its own playoff spot.

• Magic number to clinch No. 3 seed: Two
  
• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: One
• Remaining games: at Denver, vs. Utah
  
• SportsLine projection: 83 percent to secure No. 3 seed
  

Fighting for No. 3 seed

Utah is 28-7 since Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup in late January. As mentioned above, they are just one loss back of the No. 3 Blazers, but they're also just two losses from potentially missing the playoffs. If they were to lose out and end up tied with the Nuggets, Denver would have the tiebreaker via a better division record.

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot:Two
• Games remaining: at Lakers, vs. Warriors, at Blazers
• SportsLine projection:45.6 percent to get top-four seed
  

One win away from clinching spot

Monster win for the Pelicans at Golden State on Saturday night to keep pace with the No. 6 Spurs and No. 7 Thunder. Those three are tied in the loss column, just one loss up on the No. 9 Nuggets, and the Pels play the Spurs on the final night of the season. A win against the Clips on Monday, and the Pelicans won't have to worry about the Spurs game: They'll be in the playoffs regardless. Lose against the Clippers, and it will all come down to Wednesday night.

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot:Two
  
• Remaining games:at Clippers, vs. Spurs
• SportsLine projection:88 percent to make playoffs; projected No. 7 seed
  

The Spurs had lost four of six before defeating Portland on Saturday night. According to SportsLine projection, that one win raised the Spurs' chances of making the playoffs from less than 60 percent to almost 100 percent. Now, like the Pelicans and the Thunder below, one more win will seal a spot for the Spurs. They should be able to get that against the Kings on Monday.

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
  
• Remaining games:vs. Sacramento, at New Orleans
  
• SportsLine: 98 percent to make playoffs, 21.4 percent to get top-four seed
  

One of the most impressive efforts we've seen all season from the Thunder in their win over Houston on Saturday. A loss would've landed them outside the playoff picture, but they got it done. Now they come to Miami on Monday with a chance to finally clinch a berth with a victory.

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Two
• Games remaining:at Miami, vs. Memphis
• SportsLine: 91.5 percent to make playoffs
  

The Wolves are tied in the loss column with the No. 9 Nuggets, and those two play each other on the final night of the season. It's starting to look very much like that game could decide the final spot. If they lose to the Grizzlies on Monday, they don't deserve to get it.

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot:Three
• Remaining games:vs. Memphis, vs. Denver
• SportsLine: 76.4 percent to make playoffs
  

Outside looking in

When you're outside the playoffs entering the last week, all you can ask for is to control your own destiny, and the Nuggets do. Win their final two games, and they're in. Simple as that.

• Remaining games:vs. Blazers, at Minnesota
• SportsLine projection: 47.5 percent to make playoffs